American Hi-Fi. Great band.Really like that song.
Today was yet another day of almost flawless trading.I'm really happy with the way things are going.I was able to spot value,enter the market and exit my positions when the value was gone.Things are going nicely now :)
segunda-feira, 14 de abril de 2014
domingo, 13 de abril de 2014
Response to Brulati's comment
I'm going to respond to Brulatis comment with a post because I think I might have been misunderstood when I wrote about my approach to trading in my last post.Since I don't think I can explain this in just a few lines,I decided to write a post.Also I want to make it accessible to everyone and I know people tend to not read the comments :P
"You are generally going with the favourite or only when you have the gut feeling? I like a lot this article of Sultan's blog: http://centrecourttrading.blogspot.ch/2012/01/valuable-lesson.html
I think it's the combination between finding value and the gut feeling. It's true, normally the gut feeling is better on the favourite... The general problem is that the value often is on the dog. So you have to selective to pick the real good dogs. "
When I say I work on the favorites market,It doesn't necessarily mean that I fancy the favorite to win or that I spot value on the favorite.I might spot value on the dog and lay the fave.
My insight on the subject is that if you are working to hedge your position,It doesn't really matter if you work on the favorites side or the underdogs side.Its the same thing to lay the fave or back the dog (with some subtleties in between since you can use liability at lower odds for example) .But there are a few reasons why I prefer to work on the faves side.First of all,the liquidity.Since the market has a lot more money flowing on the faves side,its easier to enter or to exit the market.This isn't a big deal for me right now (since I'm working with small stakes) but it can be a problem in the future.Since I don't have the necessary knowledge of the players to always be capable to determine the probability of them winning the game,I always work towards the goal of hedging my position at some point in the match.I don't work to create freebets at the moment.But I have very accurate match reading skills (probably because I'm an extremely competitive person and have played sports since childhood to early adulthood). I'm am more often than not able to spot who is going to break the opponent next within a very small time frame.I can't spot value in the absolute odds the market gives me every time but I'm very good a spotting value in the moving averages in play.I know now for sure that that is my real edge over the market.
Seconds I am much more used to predict the market movements in the faves side.Keep in mind that I'm not claiming to be able to predict the market.Far from it.What I'm trying to say is that I am able to better recognize the moving patterns in that side of the market.I know from past experience that,averagely,a break of serve in situation y makes the market move x ticks in z direction.I am aware that what one side of the moves down,the other as to move up or vice versa.The market is always in balance (at least in two ways markets). But its far more natural for me to look at this from the faves market perspective.
Besides that I tend to be a very active trader on the market.I'm not a scalper but in a well contested match I often make 50+ market movements.Because of this,I have to be very aware of the risk I'm taking.I often prefer to lay the favorite for a smaller responsibility in detriment of backing the dog for a full stake.This allows me to be more focused in the game since I don't have the need to constantly change the stake size.I know I'm limiting my profit by entering the market with less money when value situations arise,but I'm also "reducing" the effects of variance in my bank in a way,since the losses are also smaller.This enables me to be very active on the market while always keeping my focus and not loosing patience.I'm not the kind of trader that is able to sit for 4 hours and not place a single trade.Brulati wrote on his blog a few days ago something about not every low odd represent value.I agree with him at some point.But as I have said before,value can present itself in many different ways.Many times I lay very low odds knowing that they most likely are not value bets and that I'm loosing money in the long run by doing this.But I also know that the mental side effects for me to not enter the market and losing patience can be devastating to my trading.Hence,I'm making more money than I'm losing by simply making sure that I don't deviate from the mental state of mind required for good trading.The price I pay for it is to lose some bets.Think of it as something like changing the oil in your car before it is needed just because it gives you peace of mind to know you wont have to worry about it later.
I think its all for now.Anything anyone wishes to ask me I'm more than happy to respond.But always keep in mind that I'm not a good trader yet,I'm still struggling.Don't look at my words or crazy theories as the undeniable truth,but feel free to use them and mold them into your own way of trading :)
Good greens everyone!
"You are generally going with the favourite or only when you have the gut feeling? I like a lot this article of Sultan's blog: http://centrecourttrading.blogspot.ch/2012/01/valuable-lesson.html
I think it's the combination between finding value and the gut feeling. It's true, normally the gut feeling is better on the favourite... The general problem is that the value often is on the dog. So you have to selective to pick the real good dogs. "
When I say I work on the favorites market,It doesn't necessarily mean that I fancy the favorite to win or that I spot value on the favorite.I might spot value on the dog and lay the fave.
My insight on the subject is that if you are working to hedge your position,It doesn't really matter if you work on the favorites side or the underdogs side.Its the same thing to lay the fave or back the dog (with some subtleties in between since you can use liability at lower odds for example) .But there are a few reasons why I prefer to work on the faves side.First of all,the liquidity.Since the market has a lot more money flowing on the faves side,its easier to enter or to exit the market.This isn't a big deal for me right now (since I'm working with small stakes) but it can be a problem in the future.Since I don't have the necessary knowledge of the players to always be capable to determine the probability of them winning the game,I always work towards the goal of hedging my position at some point in the match.I don't work to create freebets at the moment.But I have very accurate match reading skills (probably because I'm an extremely competitive person and have played sports since childhood to early adulthood). I'm am more often than not able to spot who is going to break the opponent next within a very small time frame.I can't spot value in the absolute odds the market gives me every time but I'm very good a spotting value in the moving averages in play.I know now for sure that that is my real edge over the market.
Seconds I am much more used to predict the market movements in the faves side.Keep in mind that I'm not claiming to be able to predict the market.Far from it.What I'm trying to say is that I am able to better recognize the moving patterns in that side of the market.I know from past experience that,averagely,a break of serve in situation y makes the market move x ticks in z direction.I am aware that what one side of the moves down,the other as to move up or vice versa.The market is always in balance (at least in two ways markets). But its far more natural for me to look at this from the faves market perspective.
Besides that I tend to be a very active trader on the market.I'm not a scalper but in a well contested match I often make 50+ market movements.Because of this,I have to be very aware of the risk I'm taking.I often prefer to lay the favorite for a smaller responsibility in detriment of backing the dog for a full stake.This allows me to be more focused in the game since I don't have the need to constantly change the stake size.I know I'm limiting my profit by entering the market with less money when value situations arise,but I'm also "reducing" the effects of variance in my bank in a way,since the losses are also smaller.This enables me to be very active on the market while always keeping my focus and not loosing patience.I'm not the kind of trader that is able to sit for 4 hours and not place a single trade.Brulati wrote on his blog a few days ago something about not every low odd represent value.I agree with him at some point.But as I have said before,value can present itself in many different ways.Many times I lay very low odds knowing that they most likely are not value bets and that I'm loosing money in the long run by doing this.But I also know that the mental side effects for me to not enter the market and losing patience can be devastating to my trading.Hence,I'm making more money than I'm losing by simply making sure that I don't deviate from the mental state of mind required for good trading.The price I pay for it is to lose some bets.Think of it as something like changing the oil in your car before it is needed just because it gives you peace of mind to know you wont have to worry about it later.
I think its all for now.Anything anyone wishes to ask me I'm more than happy to respond.But always keep in mind that I'm not a good trader yet,I'm still struggling.Don't look at my words or crazy theories as the undeniable truth,but feel free to use them and mold them into your own way of trading :)
Good greens everyone!
sábado, 12 de abril de 2014
Betunfair premium charges
Its a widely debated issue,everyone seems to have an opinion and since I plan to be in the trading game for a long time I think I should leave my insight on the matter here.
First of all I think its a tremendous disrespect from Betfair to do this to their loyal customers.That aside,Betfair claims that the major reason why they have implemented the premium charges is the fact that the big players are draining the markets.Well Betunfair,have you dumb greedy stupid suits even thought about capping the amount these sharks can bet?I know of no one who is able to consistently take 50k euros from the market using only 5k stakes.Does that seem logical to any of you?
But what pisses me off the most is that they are keeping this money from the premium charges to fill their pockets at their will.I wouldn't be against the premium charges if they used the money to improve their services.But they don't.Their service is widely known to be..how can I put this...well,CRAP. Or to make promotions to new users.Or to give bonuses to loosing players.Anything in the favor of the players or the markets.But they don't.They are greedy pigs.
Just my 2 cents.
First of all I think its a tremendous disrespect from Betfair to do this to their loyal customers.That aside,Betfair claims that the major reason why they have implemented the premium charges is the fact that the big players are draining the markets.Well Betunfair,have you dumb greedy stupid suits even thought about capping the amount these sharks can bet?I know of no one who is able to consistently take 50k euros from the market using only 5k stakes.Does that seem logical to any of you?
But what pisses me off the most is that they are keeping this money from the premium charges to fill their pockets at their will.I wouldn't be against the premium charges if they used the money to improve their services.But they don't.Their service is widely known to be..how can I put this...well,CRAP. Or to make promotions to new users.Or to give bonuses to loosing players.Anything in the favor of the players or the markets.But they don't.They are greedy pigs.
Just my 2 cents.
Perfect trading
Today marks my first perfect day of trading.Three games,three greens,2 of them fat greasy ones (110% and 185% of my stake). Apart from the greens,my trading was flawless.I was able to find big value today,let the winners run and cuted out the losers swiftly.Very proud of myself :D
You all might been thinking what my new found approach to the WTA and clay ATP matches is.I am sad to inform you all that it isn't any holy grail or a new system that works every time. I simply started working ONLY on the favorites market.Simply because I was more comfortable with the market reading.Yes,a simple detail like this might make a difference in your trading.Its all a question of perception.Since I'm not that familiar with the dogs market (and the liquidity isn't always great) its harder for me to define exit points.That little thing made a world of difference.
To do list in order to improve my trading even further:
Good fat juicy greens everyone!
You all might been thinking what my new found approach to the WTA and clay ATP matches is.I am sad to inform you all that it isn't any holy grail or a new system that works every time. I simply started working ONLY on the favorites market.Simply because I was more comfortable with the market reading.Yes,a simple detail like this might make a difference in your trading.Its all a question of perception.Since I'm not that familiar with the dogs market (and the liquidity isn't always great) its harder for me to define exit points.That little thing made a world of difference.
To do list in order to improve my trading even further:
- Keep studying the players;
- Spend countless hours thinking about the value concept as I need to be sure it is fully ingrained;
- Stop wasting my winnings by cutting my strippers budget for the month in half;
Good fat juicy greens everyone!
Heartbreakers
Lovin the WTA right now.I've came to realize that women in the WTA are to traders what regular women are to men in love life.They can fill your heart with joy.Or with hate...
Another green,as you have might already guessed.But what I'm really proud of its not the profit in itself,but the way I looked for value,let the good trades run and killed the bad ones without hesitation.
But you know what?Women can fill your heart with both joy and pain at the same time.I know this from personal experience.I bet WTA can be the same.So I have to be careful not to fall in love...
But hey,who can resist that cutie Radwanska running around in the court playing awesome tennis while lookin soooooooooooooo darn hot?
Another green,as you have might already guessed.But what I'm really proud of its not the profit in itself,but the way I looked for value,let the good trades run and killed the bad ones without hesitation.
But you know what?Women can fill your heart with both joy and pain at the same time.I know this from personal experience.I bet WTA can be the same.So I have to be careful not to fall in love...
But hey,who can resist that cutie Radwanska running around in the court playing awesome tennis while lookin soooooooooooooo darn hot?
OH MY GOSH
OH MY GOD!
No no,you dont understand.
OH.
MY.
GOD.
I spent like 20 mins yesterday looking at my geeks toy layout,showing that mighty green figures that have escaped me for what seemed like a couple thousand years.Its my first green since the last Masters 1000.
I've finally cracked it!I have added yet another strategy to my trading arsenal,one that works much better in clay matches and WTA. Strangely enough,its just a sick reverse of my usual ATP faster surfaces strategies.I cant help to feel a little dumb,but Im so relieved to have found something I can really work on.
Gonna make them millions of euros MUHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!
Seriously now.I was struggling a lot with the April clay swing.This is my first tennis season as a tennis trader,so I was already expecting that.I'm still discovering.Sometimes it feels like I'm walking in a mine field.And I never was very good at WTA, so I'm quite happy to finally have an approach to this kind of games.
So,lets analyse the last couple of weeks.I have traded roughly 20 games and they all (with no exception) gave me a tasty red.
"Wow, you must have blown your account at least once".
Wrong.I only lost roughly 30% of my trading bank.Which is actually quite good,given the situation.Quite proud of myself here.I used some techniques to achieve this,as always defining a risk cap and sticking to it.Never letting my loosing trades run for too long,making me committed to them.As I was discovering,I always tried to take the most risk averse way (lay the lower odd instead of backing the higher one,cutting my winnings but also diminishing my risk considerably).
"You surely punched a few walls, chased some losses, felt like giving up or entered a spiral of self disbelief during this period"
Not entirely correct.I never punched anything.Never chased.Briefly felt like giving up at some point and almost entered the spiral.But I never felt like I lost control.Always protected my bank.Always tried to look for value.So Im quite proud of myself and the way I was able to develop some skills.
Sometimes you have to take a step back to be able to take two steps forward.
Good greens everyone!
No no,you dont understand.
OH.
MY.
GOD.
I spent like 20 mins yesterday looking at my geeks toy layout,showing that mighty green figures that have escaped me for what seemed like a couple thousand years.Its my first green since the last Masters 1000.
I've finally cracked it!I have added yet another strategy to my trading arsenal,one that works much better in clay matches and WTA. Strangely enough,its just a sick reverse of my usual ATP faster surfaces strategies.I cant help to feel a little dumb,but Im so relieved to have found something I can really work on.
Gonna make them millions of euros MUHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!
Seriously now.I was struggling a lot with the April clay swing.This is my first tennis season as a tennis trader,so I was already expecting that.I'm still discovering.Sometimes it feels like I'm walking in a mine field.And I never was very good at WTA, so I'm quite happy to finally have an approach to this kind of games.
So,lets analyse the last couple of weeks.I have traded roughly 20 games and they all (with no exception) gave me a tasty red.
"Wow, you must have blown your account at least once".
Wrong.I only lost roughly 30% of my trading bank.Which is actually quite good,given the situation.Quite proud of myself here.I used some techniques to achieve this,as always defining a risk cap and sticking to it.Never letting my loosing trades run for too long,making me committed to them.As I was discovering,I always tried to take the most risk averse way (lay the lower odd instead of backing the higher one,cutting my winnings but also diminishing my risk considerably).
"You surely punched a few walls, chased some losses, felt like giving up or entered a spiral of self disbelief during this period"
Not entirely correct.I never punched anything.Never chased.Briefly felt like giving up at some point and almost entered the spiral.But I never felt like I lost control.Always protected my bank.Always tried to look for value.So Im quite proud of myself and the way I was able to develop some skills.
Sometimes you have to take a step back to be able to take two steps forward.
Good greens everyone!
sexta-feira, 11 de abril de 2014
Cant seem to trade clay or WTA
I cant make a green trade on clay matches or the WTA.I cant remember the last time I've seen a green screen since the clay swing started.
Im trying to mold my way of trading to always find value.To always trade with expected value as my basis to enter or exit a trade.But I cant seem to find any good strategies to apply in ATP clay matches or WTA.It all seems so random...
Everytime I pop up a live stream and watch a game,everyone seems to have a 50/50 chance of winning the game.Or a 50/50 chance of breaking the opponent/get broken.I know I can fare well in ATP matches in faster surfaces,but I cant for the life of me find a good strategy to apply in clay or WTA...
Little help anyone?
Im trying to mold my way of trading to always find value.To always trade with expected value as my basis to enter or exit a trade.But I cant seem to find any good strategies to apply in ATP clay matches or WTA.It all seems so random...
Everytime I pop up a live stream and watch a game,everyone seems to have a 50/50 chance of winning the game.Or a 50/50 chance of breaking the opponent/get broken.I know I can fare well in ATP matches in faster surfaces,but I cant for the life of me find a good strategy to apply in clay or WTA...
Little help anyone?
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