Not happy with the first trade of the day.I usually don't try for freebets.And this game reminded me why.After watching the first set I decided to create a huge freebet on Fognini.All was going well.I layed Fognini at 1.28 with my earnings from the first set.He failed to convert a ridiculously amount of break points.You know what they say:kill or be killed.What happened next...Jesus...Fognini completely lost his mind and Tsonga won the 2nd set ant then decisive set with a whopping 6-0 result...
This trade was technically very good,but at times I still struggle with lack of player knowledge.When I saw Fognini starting to get upset I should have let the trade run further instead of getting that freebet.Because it was Fognini.It wasnt Djoko or Nadal.It was Fognini.I closed my trade at 1.70...
Well but this just shows me how far I've came.I'm proud that I no longer have to rant about loosing patience,discipline,chasing,overstaking...I no longer rant about loosing half my bank in a single game.The only thing I complain about now is poor decisions relating to lack of player knowledge.And that my friends,comes with time and experience.
I am almost a tennis trader.
quinta-feira, 17 de abril de 2014
quarta-feira, 16 de abril de 2014
Thoughts for tomorrow games
I'm checking the games for tomorrows venue at Monte Carlo.I have some thoughts at how the games might play out.This aren't tips and I strongly discourage you to follow any of them as you might take a trip to mount Busto,hehe.
Robredo-Raonic should give us a nice game to trade if Raonic breaks first.He is facing a clay specialist and I think he will struggle.The price seems fair to me here,though.
Tsonga-Fognini is kind of a riddle to me.If Fognini shows up with the attitude from his first two matches,hes gonna get in trouble.If he starts well and focused,playing his A game,cant see much of a chance for Tsonga here...
Wawa-Almagro.Almagro as been playing good tennis and could put Wawa into some trouble.I think his price is a little low a 1.50's.Maybe 1.60ish fitted the match better.
Ferrer-Dimitrov.I think Ferrer is priced way too low here.From where I'm standing,1.50ish or even 1.60ish would be a fair price.
Djoko-Carreno Busta-Watching how Carreno Busta played against Monfils today,I cant help but feel that the youngster is going to make Djoko work hard.With Djoko priced at 1.04 this could be the price of the day...
Good greens everyone!
Robredo-Raonic should give us a nice game to trade if Raonic breaks first.He is facing a clay specialist and I think he will struggle.The price seems fair to me here,though.
Tsonga-Fognini is kind of a riddle to me.If Fognini shows up with the attitude from his first two matches,hes gonna get in trouble.If he starts well and focused,playing his A game,cant see much of a chance for Tsonga here...
Wawa-Almagro.Almagro as been playing good tennis and could put Wawa into some trouble.I think his price is a little low a 1.50's.Maybe 1.60ish fitted the match better.
Ferrer-Dimitrov.I think Ferrer is priced way too low here.From where I'm standing,1.50ish or even 1.60ish would be a fair price.
Djoko-Carreno Busta-Watching how Carreno Busta played against Monfils today,I cant help but feel that the youngster is going to make Djoko work hard.With Djoko priced at 1.04 this could be the price of the day...
Good greens everyone!
Feeling worn out
Uff.Trading this many matches a day is tiring.I'm not used to it as I traded only 2 or 3 matches a day till now.But I'll be paying attention to my focus levels dropping and at the smallest signs I'll take a break.
Today was yet another great day.Some great trading with some great results.I'm on the track now.On to the last game of the day,Monfils-Carreno Busta.This kid is actually pretty good in the dirt courts.And he has had a very good last couple weeks which makes me think he will make it hard for the frenchman.
Lets go!
Today was yet another great day.Some great trading with some great results.I'm on the track now.On to the last game of the day,Monfils-Carreno Busta.This kid is actually pretty good in the dirt courts.And he has had a very good last couple weeks which makes me think he will make it hard for the frenchman.
Lets go!
terça-feira, 15 de abril de 2014
Mortal Kombat!
Tan tan tan tan Taran tan tan tan tan tan Taran tan tan tan tan tan Taran tan tan tan tan tan Taran tan...
TARAN TARAN TARAN TARAN TANTA
TARAN TARAN TARAN TARAN TANTA
TARAN TARAN TARAN TARAN TANTA
TARAN TARAN TARAN TARAN TANTA
Mortal Kombat!
Yup.I feel like I have fought a Mortal Kombat against myself.But I WON!Yey!
Today was a day when I almost didn't place a bet (at least to my standards,hehe),ended up slightly in the red but came out victorious since I didn't make any big mistake.Emotional control is there.Patience is there (or at least I have found a way to deal with impatience),market knowledge,solid strategy and approach,perhaps its time to up my stakes?
Don't want to take a step bigger than what I should,but I'm starting to think about it...
P.S-Admit it,you sang the Mortal Kombat theme in your head.Got you!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
TARAN TARAN TARAN TARAN TANTA
TARAN TARAN TARAN TARAN TANTA
TARAN TARAN TARAN TARAN TANTA
TARAN TARAN TARAN TARAN TANTA
Mortal Kombat!
Yup.I feel like I have fought a Mortal Kombat against myself.But I WON!Yey!
Today was a day when I almost didn't place a bet (at least to my standards,hehe),ended up slightly in the red but came out victorious since I didn't make any big mistake.Emotional control is there.Patience is there (or at least I have found a way to deal with impatience),market knowledge,solid strategy and approach,perhaps its time to up my stakes?
Don't want to take a step bigger than what I should,but I'm starting to think about it...
P.S-Admit it,you sang the Mortal Kombat theme in your head.Got you!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Learned two new things
I've learned two new things today.The first one is a situation when a player breaks his opponent.There are some players who go for the second break and there are others who put less emphasis on breaking his opponent,rather putting more effort in securing his own service games.Yet another trace to add to my players profiles.
The second one is "leveling". When a player is in good form yet struggles (by struggles I mean tight games,3 setters) against a weaker opponent only to completely destroy an opponent of similar skill in the next round. Djokovic is very good at doing this. Nadal is not. Nadal always puts everything in the court.Its easier to spot when he is having a bad day.No that easy with the Djoker though,as he is very good at playing his cards,keeping his aces hidden and using them only when its really needed.
The second one is "leveling". When a player is in good form yet struggles (by struggles I mean tight games,3 setters) against a weaker opponent only to completely destroy an opponent of similar skill in the next round. Djokovic is very good at doing this. Nadal is not. Nadal always puts everything in the court.Its easier to spot when he is having a bad day.No that easy with the Djoker though,as he is very good at playing his cards,keeping his aces hidden and using them only when its really needed.
Flawless trading,but no perfect day
Spotted great opportunities in the Seppi match and my trading was yet again,flawless.But the in the 2 big opportunities that would have gave me a nice profit I didnt get matched for 1 tick.Twice.In a row.Sigh...
As the prophecy of Sexual Karma never fails,the opportunities I did get matched on were losers.No problem,I killed those bastards almost before they were born.Ended up 25ish% on the red.
Gabashvilli up two breaks against Simon in the 3rd set isn't something you see everyday.The french is very good at making comebacks and Gaba is famous for the mental diarrhea when he is ahead.Layed him for my profit and almost got a jackpot,but Simon wasn't on his days.He still took the set to a final 6-4 which is very impressive given he was 4-1 down.
Kohli was broken early,so,no value in this game till now.Lets see how Dimitrov fares...
As the prophecy of Sexual Karma never fails,the opportunities I did get matched on were losers.No problem,I killed those bastards almost before they were born.Ended up 25ish% on the red.
Gabashvilli up two breaks against Simon in the 3rd set isn't something you see everyday.The french is very good at making comebacks and Gaba is famous for the mental diarrhea when he is ahead.Layed him for my profit and almost got a jackpot,but Simon wasn't on his days.He still took the set to a final 6-4 which is very impressive given he was 4-1 down.
Kohli was broken early,so,no value in this game till now.Lets see how Dimitrov fares...
Fuuuuuuuudge!
I left home this morning excited and in the mood to make some moneyzz.Then I realize I forgot my laptop charger.Its sexual karma:all the different ways life can fuck you.
Sigh...
Sigh...
segunda-feira, 14 de abril de 2014
Another Perfect Day
American Hi-Fi. Great band.Really like that song.
Today was yet another day of almost flawless trading.I'm really happy with the way things are going.I was able to spot value,enter the market and exit my positions when the value was gone.Things are going nicely now :)
Today was yet another day of almost flawless trading.I'm really happy with the way things are going.I was able to spot value,enter the market and exit my positions when the value was gone.Things are going nicely now :)
domingo, 13 de abril de 2014
Response to Brulati's comment
I'm going to respond to Brulatis comment with a post because I think I might have been misunderstood when I wrote about my approach to trading in my last post.Since I don't think I can explain this in just a few lines,I decided to write a post.Also I want to make it accessible to everyone and I know people tend to not read the comments :P
"You are generally going with the favourite or only when you have the gut feeling? I like a lot this article of Sultan's blog: http://centrecourttrading.blogspot.ch/2012/01/valuable-lesson.html
I think it's the combination between finding value and the gut feeling. It's true, normally the gut feeling is better on the favourite... The general problem is that the value often is on the dog. So you have to selective to pick the real good dogs. "
When I say I work on the favorites market,It doesn't necessarily mean that I fancy the favorite to win or that I spot value on the favorite.I might spot value on the dog and lay the fave.
My insight on the subject is that if you are working to hedge your position,It doesn't really matter if you work on the favorites side or the underdogs side.Its the same thing to lay the fave or back the dog (with some subtleties in between since you can use liability at lower odds for example) .But there are a few reasons why I prefer to work on the faves side.First of all,the liquidity.Since the market has a lot more money flowing on the faves side,its easier to enter or to exit the market.This isn't a big deal for me right now (since I'm working with small stakes) but it can be a problem in the future.Since I don't have the necessary knowledge of the players to always be capable to determine the probability of them winning the game,I always work towards the goal of hedging my position at some point in the match.I don't work to create freebets at the moment.But I have very accurate match reading skills (probably because I'm an extremely competitive person and have played sports since childhood to early adulthood). I'm am more often than not able to spot who is going to break the opponent next within a very small time frame.I can't spot value in the absolute odds the market gives me every time but I'm very good a spotting value in the moving averages in play.I know now for sure that that is my real edge over the market.
Seconds I am much more used to predict the market movements in the faves side.Keep in mind that I'm not claiming to be able to predict the market.Far from it.What I'm trying to say is that I am able to better recognize the moving patterns in that side of the market.I know from past experience that,averagely,a break of serve in situation y makes the market move x ticks in z direction.I am aware that what one side of the moves down,the other as to move up or vice versa.The market is always in balance (at least in two ways markets). But its far more natural for me to look at this from the faves market perspective.
Besides that I tend to be a very active trader on the market.I'm not a scalper but in a well contested match I often make 50+ market movements.Because of this,I have to be very aware of the risk I'm taking.I often prefer to lay the favorite for a smaller responsibility in detriment of backing the dog for a full stake.This allows me to be more focused in the game since I don't have the need to constantly change the stake size.I know I'm limiting my profit by entering the market with less money when value situations arise,but I'm also "reducing" the effects of variance in my bank in a way,since the losses are also smaller.This enables me to be very active on the market while always keeping my focus and not loosing patience.I'm not the kind of trader that is able to sit for 4 hours and not place a single trade.Brulati wrote on his blog a few days ago something about not every low odd represent value.I agree with him at some point.But as I have said before,value can present itself in many different ways.Many times I lay very low odds knowing that they most likely are not value bets and that I'm loosing money in the long run by doing this.But I also know that the mental side effects for me to not enter the market and losing patience can be devastating to my trading.Hence,I'm making more money than I'm losing by simply making sure that I don't deviate from the mental state of mind required for good trading.The price I pay for it is to lose some bets.Think of it as something like changing the oil in your car before it is needed just because it gives you peace of mind to know you wont have to worry about it later.
I think its all for now.Anything anyone wishes to ask me I'm more than happy to respond.But always keep in mind that I'm not a good trader yet,I'm still struggling.Don't look at my words or crazy theories as the undeniable truth,but feel free to use them and mold them into your own way of trading :)
Good greens everyone!
"You are generally going with the favourite or only when you have the gut feeling? I like a lot this article of Sultan's blog: http://centrecourttrading.blogspot.ch/2012/01/valuable-lesson.html
I think it's the combination between finding value and the gut feeling. It's true, normally the gut feeling is better on the favourite... The general problem is that the value often is on the dog. So you have to selective to pick the real good dogs. "
When I say I work on the favorites market,It doesn't necessarily mean that I fancy the favorite to win or that I spot value on the favorite.I might spot value on the dog and lay the fave.
My insight on the subject is that if you are working to hedge your position,It doesn't really matter if you work on the favorites side or the underdogs side.Its the same thing to lay the fave or back the dog (with some subtleties in between since you can use liability at lower odds for example) .But there are a few reasons why I prefer to work on the faves side.First of all,the liquidity.Since the market has a lot more money flowing on the faves side,its easier to enter or to exit the market.This isn't a big deal for me right now (since I'm working with small stakes) but it can be a problem in the future.Since I don't have the necessary knowledge of the players to always be capable to determine the probability of them winning the game,I always work towards the goal of hedging my position at some point in the match.I don't work to create freebets at the moment.But I have very accurate match reading skills (probably because I'm an extremely competitive person and have played sports since childhood to early adulthood). I'm am more often than not able to spot who is going to break the opponent next within a very small time frame.I can't spot value in the absolute odds the market gives me every time but I'm very good a spotting value in the moving averages in play.I know now for sure that that is my real edge over the market.
Seconds I am much more used to predict the market movements in the faves side.Keep in mind that I'm not claiming to be able to predict the market.Far from it.What I'm trying to say is that I am able to better recognize the moving patterns in that side of the market.I know from past experience that,averagely,a break of serve in situation y makes the market move x ticks in z direction.I am aware that what one side of the moves down,the other as to move up or vice versa.The market is always in balance (at least in two ways markets). But its far more natural for me to look at this from the faves market perspective.
Besides that I tend to be a very active trader on the market.I'm not a scalper but in a well contested match I often make 50+ market movements.Because of this,I have to be very aware of the risk I'm taking.I often prefer to lay the favorite for a smaller responsibility in detriment of backing the dog for a full stake.This allows me to be more focused in the game since I don't have the need to constantly change the stake size.I know I'm limiting my profit by entering the market with less money when value situations arise,but I'm also "reducing" the effects of variance in my bank in a way,since the losses are also smaller.This enables me to be very active on the market while always keeping my focus and not loosing patience.I'm not the kind of trader that is able to sit for 4 hours and not place a single trade.Brulati wrote on his blog a few days ago something about not every low odd represent value.I agree with him at some point.But as I have said before,value can present itself in many different ways.Many times I lay very low odds knowing that they most likely are not value bets and that I'm loosing money in the long run by doing this.But I also know that the mental side effects for me to not enter the market and losing patience can be devastating to my trading.Hence,I'm making more money than I'm losing by simply making sure that I don't deviate from the mental state of mind required for good trading.The price I pay for it is to lose some bets.Think of it as something like changing the oil in your car before it is needed just because it gives you peace of mind to know you wont have to worry about it later.
I think its all for now.Anything anyone wishes to ask me I'm more than happy to respond.But always keep in mind that I'm not a good trader yet,I'm still struggling.Don't look at my words or crazy theories as the undeniable truth,but feel free to use them and mold them into your own way of trading :)
Good greens everyone!
sábado, 12 de abril de 2014
Betunfair premium charges
Its a widely debated issue,everyone seems to have an opinion and since I plan to be in the trading game for a long time I think I should leave my insight on the matter here.
First of all I think its a tremendous disrespect from Betfair to do this to their loyal customers.That aside,Betfair claims that the major reason why they have implemented the premium charges is the fact that the big players are draining the markets.Well Betunfair,have you dumb greedy stupid suits even thought about capping the amount these sharks can bet?I know of no one who is able to consistently take 50k euros from the market using only 5k stakes.Does that seem logical to any of you?
But what pisses me off the most is that they are keeping this money from the premium charges to fill their pockets at their will.I wouldn't be against the premium charges if they used the money to improve their services.But they don't.Their service is widely known to be..how can I put this...well,CRAP. Or to make promotions to new users.Or to give bonuses to loosing players.Anything in the favor of the players or the markets.But they don't.They are greedy pigs.
Just my 2 cents.
First of all I think its a tremendous disrespect from Betfair to do this to their loyal customers.That aside,Betfair claims that the major reason why they have implemented the premium charges is the fact that the big players are draining the markets.Well Betunfair,have you dumb greedy stupid suits even thought about capping the amount these sharks can bet?I know of no one who is able to consistently take 50k euros from the market using only 5k stakes.Does that seem logical to any of you?
But what pisses me off the most is that they are keeping this money from the premium charges to fill their pockets at their will.I wouldn't be against the premium charges if they used the money to improve their services.But they don't.Their service is widely known to be..how can I put this...well,CRAP. Or to make promotions to new users.Or to give bonuses to loosing players.Anything in the favor of the players or the markets.But they don't.They are greedy pigs.
Just my 2 cents.
Perfect trading
Today marks my first perfect day of trading.Three games,three greens,2 of them fat greasy ones (110% and 185% of my stake). Apart from the greens,my trading was flawless.I was able to find big value today,let the winners run and cuted out the losers swiftly.Very proud of myself :D
You all might been thinking what my new found approach to the WTA and clay ATP matches is.I am sad to inform you all that it isn't any holy grail or a new system that works every time. I simply started working ONLY on the favorites market.Simply because I was more comfortable with the market reading.Yes,a simple detail like this might make a difference in your trading.Its all a question of perception.Since I'm not that familiar with the dogs market (and the liquidity isn't always great) its harder for me to define exit points.That little thing made a world of difference.
To do list in order to improve my trading even further:
Good fat juicy greens everyone!
You all might been thinking what my new found approach to the WTA and clay ATP matches is.I am sad to inform you all that it isn't any holy grail or a new system that works every time. I simply started working ONLY on the favorites market.Simply because I was more comfortable with the market reading.Yes,a simple detail like this might make a difference in your trading.Its all a question of perception.Since I'm not that familiar with the dogs market (and the liquidity isn't always great) its harder for me to define exit points.That little thing made a world of difference.
To do list in order to improve my trading even further:
- Keep studying the players;
- Spend countless hours thinking about the value concept as I need to be sure it is fully ingrained;
- Stop wasting my winnings by cutting my strippers budget for the month in half;
Good fat juicy greens everyone!
Heartbreakers
Lovin the WTA right now.I've came to realize that women in the WTA are to traders what regular women are to men in love life.They can fill your heart with joy.Or with hate...
Another green,as you have might already guessed.But what I'm really proud of its not the profit in itself,but the way I looked for value,let the good trades run and killed the bad ones without hesitation.
But you know what?Women can fill your heart with both joy and pain at the same time.I know this from personal experience.I bet WTA can be the same.So I have to be careful not to fall in love...
But hey,who can resist that cutie Radwanska running around in the court playing awesome tennis while lookin soooooooooooooo darn hot?
Another green,as you have might already guessed.But what I'm really proud of its not the profit in itself,but the way I looked for value,let the good trades run and killed the bad ones without hesitation.
But you know what?Women can fill your heart with both joy and pain at the same time.I know this from personal experience.I bet WTA can be the same.So I have to be careful not to fall in love...
But hey,who can resist that cutie Radwanska running around in the court playing awesome tennis while lookin soooooooooooooo darn hot?
OH MY GOSH
OH MY GOD!
No no,you dont understand.
OH.
MY.
GOD.
I spent like 20 mins yesterday looking at my geeks toy layout,showing that mighty green figures that have escaped me for what seemed like a couple thousand years.Its my first green since the last Masters 1000.
I've finally cracked it!I have added yet another strategy to my trading arsenal,one that works much better in clay matches and WTA. Strangely enough,its just a sick reverse of my usual ATP faster surfaces strategies.I cant help to feel a little dumb,but Im so relieved to have found something I can really work on.
Gonna make them millions of euros MUHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!
Seriously now.I was struggling a lot with the April clay swing.This is my first tennis season as a tennis trader,so I was already expecting that.I'm still discovering.Sometimes it feels like I'm walking in a mine field.And I never was very good at WTA, so I'm quite happy to finally have an approach to this kind of games.
So,lets analyse the last couple of weeks.I have traded roughly 20 games and they all (with no exception) gave me a tasty red.
"Wow, you must have blown your account at least once".
Wrong.I only lost roughly 30% of my trading bank.Which is actually quite good,given the situation.Quite proud of myself here.I used some techniques to achieve this,as always defining a risk cap and sticking to it.Never letting my loosing trades run for too long,making me committed to them.As I was discovering,I always tried to take the most risk averse way (lay the lower odd instead of backing the higher one,cutting my winnings but also diminishing my risk considerably).
"You surely punched a few walls, chased some losses, felt like giving up or entered a spiral of self disbelief during this period"
Not entirely correct.I never punched anything.Never chased.Briefly felt like giving up at some point and almost entered the spiral.But I never felt like I lost control.Always protected my bank.Always tried to look for value.So Im quite proud of myself and the way I was able to develop some skills.
Sometimes you have to take a step back to be able to take two steps forward.
Good greens everyone!
No no,you dont understand.
OH.
MY.
GOD.
I spent like 20 mins yesterday looking at my geeks toy layout,showing that mighty green figures that have escaped me for what seemed like a couple thousand years.Its my first green since the last Masters 1000.
I've finally cracked it!I have added yet another strategy to my trading arsenal,one that works much better in clay matches and WTA. Strangely enough,its just a sick reverse of my usual ATP faster surfaces strategies.I cant help to feel a little dumb,but Im so relieved to have found something I can really work on.
Gonna make them millions of euros MUHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!
Seriously now.I was struggling a lot with the April clay swing.This is my first tennis season as a tennis trader,so I was already expecting that.I'm still discovering.Sometimes it feels like I'm walking in a mine field.And I never was very good at WTA, so I'm quite happy to finally have an approach to this kind of games.
So,lets analyse the last couple of weeks.I have traded roughly 20 games and they all (with no exception) gave me a tasty red.
"Wow, you must have blown your account at least once".
Wrong.I only lost roughly 30% of my trading bank.Which is actually quite good,given the situation.Quite proud of myself here.I used some techniques to achieve this,as always defining a risk cap and sticking to it.Never letting my loosing trades run for too long,making me committed to them.As I was discovering,I always tried to take the most risk averse way (lay the lower odd instead of backing the higher one,cutting my winnings but also diminishing my risk considerably).
"You surely punched a few walls, chased some losses, felt like giving up or entered a spiral of self disbelief during this period"
Not entirely correct.I never punched anything.Never chased.Briefly felt like giving up at some point and almost entered the spiral.But I never felt like I lost control.Always protected my bank.Always tried to look for value.So Im quite proud of myself and the way I was able to develop some skills.
Sometimes you have to take a step back to be able to take two steps forward.
Good greens everyone!
sexta-feira, 11 de abril de 2014
Cant seem to trade clay or WTA
I cant make a green trade on clay matches or the WTA.I cant remember the last time I've seen a green screen since the clay swing started.
Im trying to mold my way of trading to always find value.To always trade with expected value as my basis to enter or exit a trade.But I cant seem to find any good strategies to apply in ATP clay matches or WTA.It all seems so random...
Everytime I pop up a live stream and watch a game,everyone seems to have a 50/50 chance of winning the game.Or a 50/50 chance of breaking the opponent/get broken.I know I can fare well in ATP matches in faster surfaces,but I cant for the life of me find a good strategy to apply in clay or WTA...
Little help anyone?
Im trying to mold my way of trading to always find value.To always trade with expected value as my basis to enter or exit a trade.But I cant seem to find any good strategies to apply in ATP clay matches or WTA.It all seems so random...
Everytime I pop up a live stream and watch a game,everyone seems to have a 50/50 chance of winning the game.Or a 50/50 chance of breaking the opponent/get broken.I know I can fare well in ATP matches in faster surfaces,but I cant for the life of me find a good strategy to apply in clay or WTA...
Little help anyone?
quinta-feira, 10 de abril de 2014
Value trading,part 9876533536...
I know,I know,you are all sick and tired of hearing me talk about value.But hey,to all of you who want to someday succeed at trading sports markets (with some exceptions,like horse racing) you have to fully understand this concept.Like I do.
HAHAHAH,joke of the year.I wish I fully understood the value concept.Its sinking in,but as soon as I think I have nailed it,it slips from my grasp.I can spot value sometimes,but most times Im just plain stupidly throwing money around.Like I do with the strippers in the strip club.Thats the biggest problem with my trading:strippers.I make thousands of euros trading tennis,but I spend it all in the strip clubs.Oh,and I like giving Ferraris to people on their birthdays too.Theres a sick side of me that enjoys the feeling of seeing people happy.What can I do?
Seriously now.I can spot value sometimes.But I dont quite know how to quantify it yet.Actually,I kind of do,sometimes.Have to put a lot of thought in the matter.
I think value can present itself to a trader in many ways.I've read a post from Brulati in wich he mentions a problem of his (and of mine,too) which is when to green up.There are certain situations in which greening up might be losing value.Although avoiding the psychological side effects of spending two hours watching a game and having nothing to show for it might largely compensate the fact that you might have lost some EV.Or not,because you know you have avoided a few problems that could cost you a lot of EV by just greening up and moving on.
P.S.-I didnt forgot to do my pre game research.But I decided not to post it as it would take me a lot of time.Maybe I'll start posting it,maybe I wont.Either way,its something I will try to always do from now on.
Fat greens everyone!
HAHAHAH,joke of the year.I wish I fully understood the value concept.Its sinking in,but as soon as I think I have nailed it,it slips from my grasp.I can spot value sometimes,but most times Im just plain stupidly throwing money around.Like I do with the strippers in the strip club.Thats the biggest problem with my trading:strippers.I make thousands of euros trading tennis,but I spend it all in the strip clubs.Oh,and I like giving Ferraris to people on their birthdays too.Theres a sick side of me that enjoys the feeling of seeing people happy.What can I do?
Seriously now.I can spot value sometimes.But I dont quite know how to quantify it yet.Actually,I kind of do,sometimes.Have to put a lot of thought in the matter.
I think value can present itself to a trader in many ways.I've read a post from Brulati in wich he mentions a problem of his (and of mine,too) which is when to green up.There are certain situations in which greening up might be losing value.Although avoiding the psychological side effects of spending two hours watching a game and having nothing to show for it might largely compensate the fact that you might have lost some EV.Or not,because you know you have avoided a few problems that could cost you a lot of EV by just greening up and moving on.
P.S.-I didnt forgot to do my pre game research.But I decided not to post it as it would take me a lot of time.Maybe I'll start posting it,maybe I wont.Either way,its something I will try to always do from now on.
Fat greens everyone!
What an honor
What an honor it is to have The Sultan from CenterCourtTrading visiting my blog and leave the first ever comment.
If you haven't checked it out its probably the best tennis trading blog around.I know for sure its the best one I've read.Well worth the time.Its very well written and it really depicts the harsh bumpy road one must thrive trough when learning to trade the sports markets.
If you haven't checked it out its probably the best tennis trading blog around.I know for sure its the best one I've read.Well worth the time.Its very well written and it really depicts the harsh bumpy road one must thrive trough when learning to trade the sports markets.
quarta-feira, 9 de abril de 2014
Pre game research
Well,after today's games,I think I really need to do some research on players.I'm thinking on posting my pre match analysis to every game I trade.Starting tomorrow :P
Study harder
I'm developing a spreadsheet to make EV calculations to help me analyze my trades.
I come form a gambling background.I played poker online for about 4 years before discovering trading.Poker is another hard way to make an easy living.People don't understand how hard it is to be successful in poker.Its the same as trading or professional betting.I never was very successful at poker (in fact I'm sure I'm a marginal loser) but it taught me a few skills that I can definitely transpose to trading.One of the most important exercises a poker player must do is to review a playing session and to calculate the expected value to each and every one of his plays at the table.Its extremely hard to do this on the fly at the poker table,that's why players review their sessions.Its something you have to start to get the feel for because you wont be able to make the calculations you need in your head at all times in all situations.Its very boring to do,but after a while you start to understand why it is EV+ to go all in pre-flop with a pair of Aces or Kings in most situations.And avoid losing money in the long run by folding your Aces or Kings in certain spots (although very rare,these situations can occur,in tournament bubbles for example).
So I decided I'm going to start a paper record of my trading reviews,with EV calculations for every trade.Hopefully,Ill start to get the feel for some situations where positive EV is present more often than not.This way I think Ill get rid of most of the stress that is associated with trading.Basically,I need to find ways to start automatizing my trading.
I also pretend to create a player database for players,with some information about them to try and start spotting some patterns.As to when it is most and less likely for them to show his best or worst form.Their usual course over the season.Which tournaments they play.What points they have to defend.Where are they planning to conquer more points.Etc.Ill start roughing it out.
I come form a gambling background.I played poker online for about 4 years before discovering trading.Poker is another hard way to make an easy living.People don't understand how hard it is to be successful in poker.Its the same as trading or professional betting.I never was very successful at poker (in fact I'm sure I'm a marginal loser) but it taught me a few skills that I can definitely transpose to trading.One of the most important exercises a poker player must do is to review a playing session and to calculate the expected value to each and every one of his plays at the table.Its extremely hard to do this on the fly at the poker table,that's why players review their sessions.Its something you have to start to get the feel for because you wont be able to make the calculations you need in your head at all times in all situations.Its very boring to do,but after a while you start to understand why it is EV+ to go all in pre-flop with a pair of Aces or Kings in most situations.And avoid losing money in the long run by folding your Aces or Kings in certain spots (although very rare,these situations can occur,in tournament bubbles for example).
So I decided I'm going to start a paper record of my trading reviews,with EV calculations for every trade.Hopefully,Ill start to get the feel for some situations where positive EV is present more often than not.This way I think Ill get rid of most of the stress that is associated with trading.Basically,I need to find ways to start automatizing my trading.
I also pretend to create a player database for players,with some information about them to try and start spotting some patterns.As to when it is most and less likely for them to show his best or worst form.Their usual course over the season.Which tournaments they play.What points they have to defend.Where are they planning to conquer more points.Etc.Ill start roughing it out.
terça-feira, 8 de abril de 2014
sexta-feira, 4 de abril de 2014
Feeling nostalgic
Since my most recent Eureka moment I've started to feel nostalgic.And
I'm not sure why.Everything in my past as a trader is mostly composed
of sad moments of anger,anguish,some despair even.Fear.Oh the fear.I've
traded with fear for so long that the idea of trading without it seems
almost inconceivable.
I havent had the time to approach the markets with my new found vision with the depth required to acknowledge new mistakes to be made.I really dont know what to expect.But it seems as everytime I had an eureka moment I was able to find some kind of balance in the way I trade.It seems everytime I realise something,in that moment when it really sinks in,something clicks in my brain and it starts to become easier and easier to trade.It was like that when I finally started to implement bank management.It was like that when I realized how important it is to define my risk.It was like that when I discovered the wonders of having ground rules.But what they all have in common is that they all were followed by a downward spiral of red screens and anguish after a brief period of extreme success.I guess the success is becoming greater and greater as the failure keeps getting smaller everytime.I dont bust banks anymore.I dont loose composure as I did.I dont chase anymore.My struggle now has been with keeping the profit a constant.Consistency.Thats the holy grail of trading.
So why am I feeling nostalgic?I know for sure that there will be errors in my way wich Im not prepared to face.New challenges.Why am I feeling like none of that suffering is coming back and that I finally found the holy grail?Do I have every skill it takes to be successful?Only time will tell.But there is one thing I can tell you:I know FOR SURE Im a far better trader now than a year ago,a month ago,even a week ago.I know I have evolved since yesterday.Is this THE eureka moment?
I havent had the time to approach the markets with my new found vision with the depth required to acknowledge new mistakes to be made.I really dont know what to expect.But it seems as everytime I had an eureka moment I was able to find some kind of balance in the way I trade.It seems everytime I realise something,in that moment when it really sinks in,something clicks in my brain and it starts to become easier and easier to trade.It was like that when I finally started to implement bank management.It was like that when I realized how important it is to define my risk.It was like that when I discovered the wonders of having ground rules.But what they all have in common is that they all were followed by a downward spiral of red screens and anguish after a brief period of extreme success.I guess the success is becoming greater and greater as the failure keeps getting smaller everytime.I dont bust banks anymore.I dont loose composure as I did.I dont chase anymore.My struggle now has been with keeping the profit a constant.Consistency.Thats the holy grail of trading.
So why am I feeling nostalgic?I know for sure that there will be errors in my way wich Im not prepared to face.New challenges.Why am I feeling like none of that suffering is coming back and that I finally found the holy grail?Do I have every skill it takes to be successful?Only time will tell.But there is one thing I can tell you:I know FOR SURE Im a far better trader now than a year ago,a month ago,even a week ago.I know I have evolved since yesterday.Is this THE eureka moment?
Value
I've been thinking a lot about the way I'm trading.
I've started trading roughly a year and 4 months ago.Since then,Ive had a few big wins,a LOT of big losses,a few busted banks.Typical from someone who is inexperienced and that does not know what he is doing.
Ive started trading soccer,since it is my favorite sport to watch,closely followed by tennis.As many,I have experienced a pretty good start followed by a spiral of losses,red screens,anguish,fear,nervousness,sleepless nights.
Recently,and as my greens started to fade again,Ive found myself thinking about what I did in those first few weeks that made my profit so big and that made trading look so easy.Because it really felt easy back then.I just watched the game,defined who was playing better and just backed that team.More often than not,my position would come out as a winning one.Simple as that.Expectations started to rise real high as the promise of a life free from the trivialities of a day job and financial independence seemed closer than ever.It felt like I was just a step away.The harsh truth is,after almost a year and a half later,a few busted banks later,a lot of time,dedication,experience and countless hours of watching the markets,hundreds of trading sessions later,I still feel just a step away.Ive always felt just a step away.I never felt that I needed a radical change to the way I was doing things.So what started to go wrong?
Trading requires a certain set of skills,technical and mental skills.Some of them are of extreme importance and some of them are less important,but to be successful in this game,you really have to have the whole package.Back then,I had a certain set of skills that is extremely hard to learn if it is not natural to you.Its widely known as "reading the game".I would just pop up a stream of any sport I was relatively familiar with and within a few minutes I could tell you who was going to win,and more often than not I would be right.It didn't matter if it was soccer,tennis,NBA,snooker,you name it."I can do that too",you say to me.Well,let me tell you then if you already don't know,you are a lucky son of a gun.Just as I am.I just didn't have the clarity of mind back than to understand it.
I can't tell you how many times people approached me,being it in forums,cafes or in those Sunday afternoons in a friends house where we gather to watch the evenings soccer games and said to me "How on earth can you read the game that way?!"Well,I don't know.Its something I cant teach anyone.You either know how to do it or you don't.Its not something like bank management,risk control,market movement,emotional control that you can read about in books,forums or blogs, take an attitude and start learning it.
The downside to it is that it can make you so overconfident that things just start to crumble away beneath your fingernails,beneath your very own eyes.But that overconfidence blinds you so badly that you think you cant ever be wrong.Never.Ever.But you can.And you are wrong once.And a red screen appears."No problem,I just bet enough next game to recover my losses.". And you do.But you are eager to recoup that money you lost,so you take a position that had no value (and you KNEW it had no value) just because it paid enough for you to recoup your losses.Another red.You already lost more than half your bank in just 2 games.Panic installs.All that profit has slept away from your grasp.That profit that took you 10 games to win.That many hours of hard work you invested just faded away.In just 2 games.So quickly that it felt like being hit by thunder.You're not only not in profit,you already have lost a considerable amount of what you have invested.That impatience of recouping everything you worked so hard for starts to turn to anxiety.That anxiety makes you not only take valueless positions,it also makes you start chasing your losses within the same game.And your bank goes bust in the split of a second,in the blink of an eye.This time it doesn't feel like thunder.It feels unreal.To the point that you go to bed that night believing that its just a bad dream,that you will wake up and it was all a nightmare.But it wasn't just a bad dream.It was the cold,harsh truth.It wasn't a bad dream but it sure is a living nightmare.And it hurts.So bad.And it left big scars.
You start to research,to read books and forums,hundreds of hours spent reading about trading.You read about bank management."LOLZ,whoever wrote this must be stupid" you think.And you try again.Boom,you go bust.You are back to research mode.This time you read about some technique.Being it scalping the U/O or the correct score.You try it.You have some small success but you go bust again.More research.This time is Lay the Draw.Didn't work,bust again.You change sports because you are so sick and tired that it seems impossible to make a profit in those "stupid rigged soccer markets". Still no results.And you find yourself in this downward spiral,trying everything you can find,following every tipster and his mothers picks,trying to find that holy grail of trading.
I bet many of you,if not all are familiar with this scenarios.Answering the question I left a few paragraphs ago, what went wrong?What went wrong is that,although you knew the way you had to trade you just didn't have the whole package of skills required to make a consistent profit.I came to a conclusion recently.No way of trading can feel more natural to you than the way you did things when you didn't know how to do things.Seems like a paradox?Let me explain further.To the people who experienced success before utterly and complete destruction of their banks,you must have done something right.You won.I don't believe in luck that way.I believe that you had an edge over the market,being it choose underdogs to win or assess with relatively security the chances of a goal being scored in a certain time frame or the chances of a break of service occurring.What happens is,most of us don't have the mental and emotional skills to take the game a step foward.We don't have bank management,no defined risk,no control over our risk of ruin.When we start to lose,we don't have the clarity of though to recognize that we cant always be in a winning position.We can only see the lost.That affects us to the point that we start to do things we know we aren't supposed to do,but we lack the mental strength to stop doing it.So we look for examples of what people are doing and we try to copy them.We can never be successful because its not our way of doing things.And Im not talking solely about strategies here.Because there are people who cant find their own way of trading until they try out what others are doing.This is for all the "naturals" out there.Let me try and put this into an example.
Imagine someone (this can even be your specific case) who is really good at picking underdogs to win a game of soccer.You go through all of this phases I described above.You read about bank management (which I think is one of the first core concepts that doesn't come natural to many but is also one of the first to make sense and sink in). You see someone who is really good at picking favorites to win and they use stakes of 10% of their bankroll.You start to use 10% of your bankroll as your stake but you still go bankrupt.You think you have bank and risk management,but you really don't.You know you are going to be right much less often than this other guy,but still you use the same bank management.Can you see where I'm going with this?Bank management started to make sense to you,but it obviously didn't sink in.
And then comes the emotional control,which is solely the HARDEST thing I have EVER had to learn in my life.Learning to trade isn't difficult.Winning battles against yourself is difficult.And it is so difficult that you might win some battles,but if you don't keep fighting,you'll never win the war.If you don't fight to always have that set of mental skills,that control over yourself,you'll never succeed.The mental strength that is required to just sit and watch a game for 2 hours and DO NOTHING is so big that it is almost overwhelming to do it at first.Patience.To accept a loss knowing that you made the right call and still lost hurts more than a punch straight to the teeth.Acceptance.To not take a position you know has value because you are afraid.Courage.To let a trade run even after you realize the value it had no longer exists.Well,thats just plain stupid lolz.
That being said,I'm taking a new (old) approach to the way I trade.Ill do exactly what I've done in the beginning,but Ill do it using all the skills Ive learned through the way.All of them.The whole package.Ill start trading VALUE again.
I've started trading roughly a year and 4 months ago.Since then,Ive had a few big wins,a LOT of big losses,a few busted banks.Typical from someone who is inexperienced and that does not know what he is doing.
Ive started trading soccer,since it is my favorite sport to watch,closely followed by tennis.As many,I have experienced a pretty good start followed by a spiral of losses,red screens,anguish,fear,nervousness,sleepless nights.
Recently,and as my greens started to fade again,Ive found myself thinking about what I did in those first few weeks that made my profit so big and that made trading look so easy.Because it really felt easy back then.I just watched the game,defined who was playing better and just backed that team.More often than not,my position would come out as a winning one.Simple as that.Expectations started to rise real high as the promise of a life free from the trivialities of a day job and financial independence seemed closer than ever.It felt like I was just a step away.The harsh truth is,after almost a year and a half later,a few busted banks later,a lot of time,dedication,experience and countless hours of watching the markets,hundreds of trading sessions later,I still feel just a step away.Ive always felt just a step away.I never felt that I needed a radical change to the way I was doing things.So what started to go wrong?
Trading requires a certain set of skills,technical and mental skills.Some of them are of extreme importance and some of them are less important,but to be successful in this game,you really have to have the whole package.Back then,I had a certain set of skills that is extremely hard to learn if it is not natural to you.Its widely known as "reading the game".I would just pop up a stream of any sport I was relatively familiar with and within a few minutes I could tell you who was going to win,and more often than not I would be right.It didn't matter if it was soccer,tennis,NBA,snooker,you name it."I can do that too",you say to me.Well,let me tell you then if you already don't know,you are a lucky son of a gun.Just as I am.I just didn't have the clarity of mind back than to understand it.
I can't tell you how many times people approached me,being it in forums,cafes or in those Sunday afternoons in a friends house where we gather to watch the evenings soccer games and said to me "How on earth can you read the game that way?!"Well,I don't know.Its something I cant teach anyone.You either know how to do it or you don't.Its not something like bank management,risk control,market movement,emotional control that you can read about in books,forums or blogs, take an attitude and start learning it.
The downside to it is that it can make you so overconfident that things just start to crumble away beneath your fingernails,beneath your very own eyes.But that overconfidence blinds you so badly that you think you cant ever be wrong.Never.Ever.But you can.And you are wrong once.And a red screen appears."No problem,I just bet enough next game to recover my losses.". And you do.But you are eager to recoup that money you lost,so you take a position that had no value (and you KNEW it had no value) just because it paid enough for you to recoup your losses.Another red.You already lost more than half your bank in just 2 games.Panic installs.All that profit has slept away from your grasp.That profit that took you 10 games to win.That many hours of hard work you invested just faded away.In just 2 games.So quickly that it felt like being hit by thunder.You're not only not in profit,you already have lost a considerable amount of what you have invested.That impatience of recouping everything you worked so hard for starts to turn to anxiety.That anxiety makes you not only take valueless positions,it also makes you start chasing your losses within the same game.And your bank goes bust in the split of a second,in the blink of an eye.This time it doesn't feel like thunder.It feels unreal.To the point that you go to bed that night believing that its just a bad dream,that you will wake up and it was all a nightmare.But it wasn't just a bad dream.It was the cold,harsh truth.It wasn't a bad dream but it sure is a living nightmare.And it hurts.So bad.And it left big scars.
You start to research,to read books and forums,hundreds of hours spent reading about trading.You read about bank management."LOLZ,whoever wrote this must be stupid" you think.And you try again.Boom,you go bust.You are back to research mode.This time you read about some technique.Being it scalping the U/O or the correct score.You try it.You have some small success but you go bust again.More research.This time is Lay the Draw.Didn't work,bust again.You change sports because you are so sick and tired that it seems impossible to make a profit in those "stupid rigged soccer markets". Still no results.And you find yourself in this downward spiral,trying everything you can find,following every tipster and his mothers picks,trying to find that holy grail of trading.
I bet many of you,if not all are familiar with this scenarios.Answering the question I left a few paragraphs ago, what went wrong?What went wrong is that,although you knew the way you had to trade you just didn't have the whole package of skills required to make a consistent profit.I came to a conclusion recently.No way of trading can feel more natural to you than the way you did things when you didn't know how to do things.Seems like a paradox?Let me explain further.To the people who experienced success before utterly and complete destruction of their banks,you must have done something right.You won.I don't believe in luck that way.I believe that you had an edge over the market,being it choose underdogs to win or assess with relatively security the chances of a goal being scored in a certain time frame or the chances of a break of service occurring.What happens is,most of us don't have the mental and emotional skills to take the game a step foward.We don't have bank management,no defined risk,no control over our risk of ruin.When we start to lose,we don't have the clarity of though to recognize that we cant always be in a winning position.We can only see the lost.That affects us to the point that we start to do things we know we aren't supposed to do,but we lack the mental strength to stop doing it.So we look for examples of what people are doing and we try to copy them.We can never be successful because its not our way of doing things.And Im not talking solely about strategies here.Because there are people who cant find their own way of trading until they try out what others are doing.This is for all the "naturals" out there.Let me try and put this into an example.
Imagine someone (this can even be your specific case) who is really good at picking underdogs to win a game of soccer.You go through all of this phases I described above.You read about bank management (which I think is one of the first core concepts that doesn't come natural to many but is also one of the first to make sense and sink in). You see someone who is really good at picking favorites to win and they use stakes of 10% of their bankroll.You start to use 10% of your bankroll as your stake but you still go bankrupt.You think you have bank and risk management,but you really don't.You know you are going to be right much less often than this other guy,but still you use the same bank management.Can you see where I'm going with this?Bank management started to make sense to you,but it obviously didn't sink in.
And then comes the emotional control,which is solely the HARDEST thing I have EVER had to learn in my life.Learning to trade isn't difficult.Winning battles against yourself is difficult.And it is so difficult that you might win some battles,but if you don't keep fighting,you'll never win the war.If you don't fight to always have that set of mental skills,that control over yourself,you'll never succeed.The mental strength that is required to just sit and watch a game for 2 hours and DO NOTHING is so big that it is almost overwhelming to do it at first.Patience.To accept a loss knowing that you made the right call and still lost hurts more than a punch straight to the teeth.Acceptance.To not take a position you know has value because you are afraid.Courage.To let a trade run even after you realize the value it had no longer exists.Well,thats just plain stupid lolz.
That being said,I'm taking a new (old) approach to the way I trade.Ill do exactly what I've done in the beginning,but Ill do it using all the skills Ive learned through the way.All of them.The whole package.Ill start trading VALUE again.
quarta-feira, 2 de abril de 2014
Defined risk
The changes I made to the srategy are really paying of.The risk is much more defined although the reward is not as big.
Venus Williams-Scheepers,15% green.
;)
Venus Williams-Scheepers,15% green.
;)
Solidifying the strategy
I usually record every game I trade on.I've started doing this cos I felt the need to have a register of all my trades.I tried having a written diary but many things slipped my mind when it was time to update the diary,many times at the end of the day having the game been in the morning.This way I can watch the video later,review it,add notes and be completely sure I dont miss anything (being it an error or a good trade).It is also very useful to study the market movements when Im trying to tweak my strategy.If anyone is interested I can post a tutorial on how to record your desktop :)
I reviewed my trading videos from yesterday and added a few improvements and rules to my system.I think its becoming quite solid.
Mentally Im improving a lot,but at the first glance of a psychological slip I know a larger than usual red is coming,so I have to be focused.
Will continue to update on my adbenture on the WTA markets throughout the week.
Good greens everyone!
I reviewed my trading videos from yesterday and added a few improvements and rules to my system.I think its becoming quite solid.
Mentally Im improving a lot,but at the first glance of a psychological slip I know a larger than usual red is coming,so I have to be focused.
Will continue to update on my adbenture on the WTA markets throughout the week.
Good greens everyone!
Getting the feel
Really starting to get the feel for WTA.Another green,25% of my stake on the Lisicki-Vania King game.From the emotional point of view Im doing really good.My strategies need further fine tuning but have already improved quite a bit this past few days.
Another green
Another green,this time roughky 30% of my stake.Only traded first set on the Svitolina-Stephens game.This new approach seems to be working quite well for me in the WTA.
Thumbs up!!
;)
Thumbs up!!
;)
terça-feira, 1 de abril de 2014
First green
Just ended the Venus Williams-Strycova match.Im starting to get the feel for some entry and exit points as well as how momentum swings in WTA.Green of 50% of my stake.Im testing a new approach wich requires less emotional control as my entry and exit points are better defined.Will keep testing it.
Another red
WTA is proofing harder than I thought it would be.Firts game,red of 50% of my stake.Will have to study the market and come out with some new strategies.Too many unforced errors,too many breaks of serve.Will work on this for the remaining of the week since there are no ATP tournaments going on.
WTA
Theres no ATP this week so I decided to start trading the WTA games as well.My experience with WTA is extremely limited,hence I dont have a defined strategy to apply.After putting some thought on the subject,I decided Im going to swing trade the players momentum.
Heres the rules:
Heres the rules:
- NO EMOTIONS
- 5% stake in the first set,2% in the second;
- quit the game if the red is equal to or superior to 40% of my stake;
- hedge position after the end of each set;
- NO EMOTIONS;
- let the winners run,cut the losses swiftly;
- NO EMOTIONS;
Subscrever:
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