I know,I know,you are all sick and tired of hearing me talk about value.But hey,to all of you who want to someday succeed at trading sports markets (with some exceptions,like horse racing) you have to fully understand this concept.Like I do.
HAHAHAH,joke of the year.I wish I fully understood the value concept.Its sinking in,but as soon as I think I have nailed it,it slips from my grasp.I can spot value sometimes,but most times Im just plain stupidly throwing money around.Like I do with the strippers in the strip club.Thats the biggest problem with my trading:strippers.I make thousands of euros trading tennis,but I spend it all in the strip clubs.Oh,and I like giving Ferraris to people on their birthdays too.Theres a sick side of me that enjoys the feeling of seeing people happy.What can I do?
Seriously now.I can spot value sometimes.But I dont quite know how to quantify it yet.Actually,I kind of do,sometimes.Have to put a lot of thought in the matter.
I think value can present itself to a trader in many ways.I've read a post from Brulati in wich he mentions a problem of his (and of mine,too) which is when to green up.There are certain situations in which greening up might be losing value.Although avoiding the psychological side effects of spending two hours watching a game and having nothing to show for it might largely compensate the fact that you might have lost some EV.Or not,because you know you have avoided a few problems that could cost you a lot of EV by just greening up and moving on.
P.S.-I didnt forgot to do my pre game research.But I decided not to post it as it would take me a lot of time.Maybe I'll start posting it,maybe I wont.Either way,its something I will try to always do from now on.
Fat greens everyone!
Nice blog! I think we are the new "Sultans" :-). If we make the same path like he did, we will be quiet successful in two years. I feel my progress, but it's still a long way to go. At the moment I am reading every post of Sutlan's blog and I can tell you... I have a lot of Deja Vu. It helps a lot to know that he made the same mistakes, he had the same disappointments, the same doubts. I think when you work really hard, it's a matter of time you will be a successful trader. Even the very best have no crystal ball :-). They just have the probabilites (the so called value) on their side.
ResponderEliminarI saw it lately... last week the variance was on my side, this week not. The only thing which counts it's long term. Like Sultan wrote, it's not good to set financial targets (especially not on daily or monthly base). The best it's taking every day like it comes. Some days we will make good profits, some days we will lose. I think especially the bad days will decide. If you can minimize the losses on bad days, you can be successful. To trader better with the greens it's a matter of confidence. To trade always the value without hedging it's an illusion. I mean value it's invisible. So even if you can win the trade, nobody can be 100% sure about the vaule. Perhaps the market knows something you don't know or you just have the wrong opinion. Even the professionals make mistakes...