I'm developing a spreadsheet to make EV calculations to help me analyze my trades.
I come form a gambling background.I played poker online for about 4 years before discovering trading.Poker is another hard way to make an easy living.People don't understand how hard it is to be successful in poker.Its the same as trading or professional betting.I never was very successful at poker (in fact I'm sure I'm a marginal loser) but it taught me a few skills that I can definitely transpose to trading.One of the most important exercises a poker player must do is to review a playing session and to calculate the expected value to each and every one of his plays at the table.Its extremely hard to do this on the fly at the poker table,that's why players review their sessions.Its something you have to start to get the feel for because you wont be able to make the calculations you need in your head at all times in all situations.Its very boring to do,but after a while you start to understand why it is EV+ to go all in pre-flop with a pair of Aces or Kings in most situations.And avoid losing money in the long run by folding your Aces or Kings in certain spots (although very rare,these situations can occur,in tournament bubbles for example).
So I decided I'm going to start a paper record of my trading reviews,with EV calculations for every trade.Hopefully,Ill start to get the feel for some situations where positive EV is present more often than not.This way I think Ill get rid of most of the stress that is associated with trading.Basically,I need to find ways to start automatizing my trading.
I also pretend to create a player database for players,with some information about them to try and start spotting some patterns.As to when it is most and less likely for them to show his best or worst form.Their usual course over the season.Which tournaments they play.What points they have to defend.Where are they planning to conquer more points.Etc.Ill start roughing it out.
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