Not happy with the first trade of the day.I usually don't try for freebets.And this game reminded me why.After watching the first set I decided to create a huge freebet on Fognini.All was going well.I layed Fognini at 1.28 with my earnings from the first set.He failed to convert a ridiculously amount of break points.You know what they say:kill or be killed.What happened next...Jesus...Fognini completely lost his mind and Tsonga won the 2nd set ant then decisive set with a whopping 6-0 result...
This trade was technically very good,but at times I still struggle with lack of player knowledge.When I saw Fognini starting to get upset I should have let the trade run further instead of getting that freebet.Because it was Fognini.It wasnt Djoko or Nadal.It was Fognini.I closed my trade at 1.70...
Well but this just shows me how far I've came.I'm proud that I no longer have to rant about loosing patience,discipline,chasing,overstaking...I no longer rant about loosing half my bank in a single game.The only thing I complain about now is poor decisions relating to lack of player knowledge.And that my friends,comes with time and experience.
I am almost a tennis trader.
Could be my posting! Not because of the Fognini trade (I was on the other side this time and was sweating blood for a comeback of Tsonga... didn't look got in most of the time in 2nd set), more because the "free bet" stuff. I will write today about this issue. It's so hard after a decent entry to protect and let grow the greens.
ResponderEliminarI could let run the profit until the end, but I was over cautious after I lost my first bet of the day (I hoped for a comeback of Robredo, but like I wrote today at your blog he is not in a good shape and Raonic is still underrated in the market on clay).
I think we are more or less at the same leve. We can spot value, but make mistakes after we entered the market. Especially with green positions... when the trade goes wrong, I exactly know what I will do. There are three options, let it run (with a small stake if is a very low lay under 1.10), reduce the stake (when I have still a good feeling, but like to protect the bank) or scratch the trade (when my feeling changed or value is gone). Now I have to adapt something similar to the green trades. Actually is very bad to hedge a good green too much. The free bets with value (probably that was your mistake... the value was more or less the whole match on Tsonga) are not the worst strategy. Long term you will win, but it needs balls out of steel to always take the value without hedging. I think even the very best traders, hedge a part of their greens.
I think with bigger amounts it's a bit easier... if you have a book with 100/1'000 or 10/100 I would go in the first time for the value. 100 is still great, 10 is not something which attracts me a lot. Perhaps is the wrong mindset, but I think (if you have a profitable strategy) with bigger amounts it's easier to stay with the value because you still have a decent profit when the wrong player wins.
Did you stop trading? 28 posts in April and in May 0? It's a pity that one of the better blogs has no news since a month. Not a good sign normally. Hope you do better than I guess. Good luck!
ResponderEliminar